Fifty years ago, the Athletics won the World Series, their first in Oakland and their first of three in a row. The A’s were twice removed from Philadelphia, where they had won their most recent World Series 42 years previously, and twice removed from ownership by the Mack family.
Their owner in 1972 was Charlie Finley, who had a 19th-century robber baron attitude toward his players, who returned a lot of 1960s rebellious protest back.
The 1972 postseason was compelling TV for a sport in need of it. Anyone who’s worked on a newspaper redesign knows how resistant consumers are to change, and anyone who listens to the older generations even today (especially today) knows how baseball elders are even more so.
But it was hard to squawk about how things were better in the old days while watching the 1972 postseason. Because it was the first of the championship series era to give fans competition, dramatic endings, deciding games, and hint at the expanded playoffs and NCAA basketball tournament of a postseason we have today.
For the first three seasons of championship series, they were mostly as dull as a one-sided pennant race (the Miracle Mets of 1969 provided an enthralling story line, but they beat the Braves in three games and outscored them by four runs a game. Which they should have. The Mets won 100 games, the Braves 93.). Favorites won five of the first six championship series by sweeps. Only one series was extended to a fourth game, and none to a deciding fifth game. It was tedious, like watching a TV show with the inevitable ending.
That all changed in 1972. Both championship series went the full five games for the first time, both were decided by one run, and both in unlikely fashion. In the National League, Johnny Bench homered and the Reds scored twice in the bottom of the ninth to beat the Pirates. In the American League, Reggie Jackson didn’t homer, but stole second, stole home, tore a a hamstring, and the A’s won a series in which four of the games were decided by one run.
The mustachioed A’s went to the World Series without Jackson and won that in the full seven games, all four of their wins and six of the games decided by one run. Of the 17 postseason games in 1972, 12 were decided by one run and two went to extra innings. Maybe an expanded postseason wasn’t so offputting.
The 1972 postseason was the perfect rebuttal for those averse to change. Fifty years later, the playoffs keep changing, expanding from the four teams begun in 1969 to eight in 1995 to 10 in 2012 and now to 12. The more teams, the more upsets is a prospect that’s good for intrigue, if not the 111-win Dodgers.
So who will be November’s team in 2022? Do the Dodgers, who were the best team all season, win the World Series? Or does someone like the 2021 Braves, division champs with just 88 wins, fewer than 11 other teams, win it? Who knows. It’s that kind of uncertainty that betters MLB’s bargaining position when negotiating TV rights. If only it didn’t take the powers in charge so many years to think of it.
Here’s the 12 teams in this year’s postseason, ranked in order of their chance to win it all:
- 1. Los Angeles: Why the Dodgers will win: Because they won 111 games this year, most in the NL since the 1906 Chicago Cubs won 116. Because their run differential was +334, the biggest since the 1939 Yankees were +411 and tied for third-best since 1900. Why the Dodgers won’t win: Those 1906 Cubs, who were a +323, didn’t win. They weren’t even the best team in Chicago at season’s end. They lost the World Series to the White Sox in six games, and each team used four pitchers. They didn’t have closers back then. The Dodgers, who traded for Craig Kimbrel, don’t have one either.
- 2. Houston: Why the Astros will win: Because they won 106 games, 18 by Justin Verlander at age 39. Verlander put up a 1.75 ERA after having pitched six innings since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery and may, with Shane McLanahan’s slippage at the end of the seaason, win another Cy Young. Because Dusty Baker, who said he was at the Monterey Pop Festival the night Jimi Hendrix set his guitar on fire, is the best blues-loving manager in MLB. Why the Astros won’t win: Because Dusty has a bad rap. What Hendrix did to his guitar is what Dusty has seemed to do to his teams, critics say, even if it’s exaggerated. Dusty did well to get the 2020 Astros to the ALCS (where they forced a seventh game after trailing, 3-0) and the 2021 Astros to the Series (without Lance McCullers, whose injury extended into August of this season). But Dusty has never managed a postseason that didn’t end with a loss. And Verlander has lost his last four postseason decisions, including two in the 2019 Series where he put up a 5.73 ERA. And because outfielder Michael Brantley, done for the season after shoulder surgery, will be missed.
- 3. Atlanta: Why the Braves will win: Because they don’t bunt. It took the Braves 161 games to sacrifice, and they finished last in sacrifice bunts with 1. The Dodgers were next to last with three. Of the 10 teams which sacrificed the fewest times, eight are in the playoffs. Anyone catching a trend? Because the Braves had MLB’s only 20-game winner in 2022 in Kyle Wright, who won 21 — the Braves’ first 20-game winner since 2003 (no, it wasn’t Maddux, Glavine or Smoltz). Why the Braves won’t win: Because bunting or not, no champion has defended a title since the Yankees in 2000. And because before Wright the Braves’ last 20-game winner was free-agent signee Russ Ortiz, fresh off Baker sending him to the locker room with the game ball and a 5-0 lead in Game 6 of the 2002 World Series. Ortiz put up a 6.32 ERA for the Braves in three postseason starts. And because while Kenley Jansen might have led the NL in saves with 41, he led MLB in save opportunities with 48. When the Dodgers won the Series in 2020, Jansen was their closer, but they opted to finish with Julio Urias.
- 4. New York Yankees: Why the Yankees will win: Because the Yankees have the best hitter in MLB — Aaron Judge’s 211 OPS+ is the best since Barry Bonds’ 263 in 2004 (Bonds hit 45 homers that year, and walked 232 times). And the Yankees have $324 million pitcher Gerrit Cole, who set the team strikeout record with 257. Why the Yankees won’t win: Because opposing pitchers will treat Judge in the postseason as if he were Bonds in 2004. In five postseasons, Judge has been walked at a 14% rate; that might double this postseason. Because Cole seemed for parts of 2022 as if he might beat Judge to 62 home runs. He threw 33 of them. And because after starting 61-23, the Yankees finished 38-40, in large part because of a bullpen destroyed by injuries. Who’s the Yankees’ closer? Lou Trivino?
- 5. New York Mets: Why the Mets will win: Because they have five Cy Young Awards at the front of the rotation in Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom, and a closer in Edwin Diaz who averaged 17.13 strikeouts per nine innings. No one else averaged more then Josh Hader’s 14.58. Because, despite losing a 10-and-a-half game lead, the Mets won 101 games, their fourth 100-win season. Two of the three previous 100-win seasons were 1969 and 1986. Why the Mets won’t win: Because Buck Showalter has bad timing. The Yankees fired him in 1995 and won the World Series in 1996; the Diamondbacks fired him in 2000 and won the World Series in 2001. Following Buck isn’t quite like replacing Bear Bryant. And because the last time the Mets won 100 games was 1988. They lost to the Dodgers in seven that season. And because they really miss Starling Marte, who’s doubtful with a broken finger.
- 6. Toronto: Why the Blue Jays will win: Because they’re all vaccinated, even Whit Merrifield. He was one of 10 Royals who missed the team’s series in Toronto because Canada prohibited unvaccinated visitors from entering the country, but he was the only one who said he might get the shot if he were on a better team. Which he soon was. If Merrifield would go so far as to get vaccinated to play in the playoffs, imagine what he’d do going into second base to break up the double play. And because the Blue Jays can hit. They were third in MLB in runs scored and had five players (Vladimir Guerrero, Matt Chapman, Bo Bichette, George Springer and Teoscar Hernandez) hit 24 or more homers. A fifth, catcher Danny Jansen, hit 15 in 248 plate appearances.Why the Blue Jays won’t win: Because Merrifield isn’t very good. His .673 OPS was the worst of his seven-season career. Then again, his .769 OPS in 44 games with the Jays was more like it, 12 points above his career average. Must have been the vaccine. Because Canada dropped the vaccine requirement for visitors. That means Seattle’s Robbie Ray, last year’s AL Cy Young winner when he was a Blue Jay, can pitch in the wild-card series. He missed the Mariners’ May series in Toronto because he was unvaccinated. And because the Blue Jays’ starting pitching was 18th in MLB with a 3.98 ERA — no playoff team was worse. Their bullpen — 13th at 3.77 — can’t provide enough cover.
- 7. St. Louis: Why the Cardinals will win: Because it’s 2006 again. The Cardinals have three players — Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols — reunited 16 years after they won the World Series. For perspective, consider the following: Their closer from that year, Jason Isringhausen, last pitched in 2012. Their third baseman, Scott Rolen, has been on the Hall of Fame ballot five times. Their centerfielder, Jim Edmonds, has been a Cardinal broadcaster for nine years. Their manager, Tony La Russa, won a second World Series title with the trio in 2011, retired, was elected to the Hall or Fame, unretired and retired again. It’s all as unlikely as Pujols slugging .550 and hitting 24 home runs at age 42, which he did this season. Pujols’ .895 OPS is his highest since 2011, his last year in his first Cardinal stint, and his 154 OPS+ is his best since 2010. Why the Cardinals won’t win: Because time is starting to win out over the other two members of the triumvirate. Molina batted .214 with a .535 OPS, walked five times and fanned 40. Wainwright had a 3.71 ERA and .697 OPS against — better than league average but maybe not good enough to win a playoff game, or even start one. Do the Cardinals trust them in a best-of-three series because of what they did 16 years ago? Nostalgia is enticing, but is it delusional? And beware if Ryan Helsley’s (9-1, 1.25 ERA, .438 OPS against) finger injury is serious.
- 8. Cleveland: Why the Guardians will win: Because they’re no longer the Indians. The franchise had that nickname for 106 years and won two World Series, the last in 1948. With its loss in 2016 to the Cubs, it claimed the longest Series drought in MLB. Peter Pattakos for the Cleveland Scene in 2012 on the Chief Wahoo logo: The team is “paying the price for embracing America’s last acceptable racist symbol.” Tom Hanks made the video announcing the name change; imagine what the video will be if the Guardians win the World Series. Because the Guardians have Emmanuel Clase, the best reliever not named Edwin Diaz in the playoffs. Diaz had a 1.31 ERA, 32 saves and a .446 OPS against; Clase had a 1.36 ERA, MLB-best 42 saves and a .425 OPS against. Why the Guardians won’t win: Because while the curse of Chief Wahoo may have been exorcised, the Curse of Rocky Colavito hasn’t. That was the title of a 1994 book by Terry Pluto, which blamed the franchise’s lack of success on GM Frank Lane trading AL home run champion Rocky Colavito for AL batting champion Harvey Kuenn in 1960. Or as Reds GM Gabe Paul put it: “The Indians traded a slow guy with power for a slow guy with no power.” Suffice to say it didn’t work out, though Colavito, according to his bio at sabr.org, denies he put a curse on the franchise. Because the Guardians could use Colavito, even at age 89. They were 29th in home runs this year, hitting just 127. Aaron Judge nearly hit half that many himself.
- 9. Philadelphia: Why the Phillies will win: Because while the Phillies’ 87 wins were the second-fewest of any playoff team, they played at a 95-win pace for interim manager Rob Thomson. The Phillies were 22-29 under Joe Girardi, 65-46 under Thomson, despite losing Bryce Harper for a couple of months. Because the Phillies have two starting pitchers (Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola) better than those they’ll face against the Cardinals in the wild-card series. Because maybe, with the Eagles the only undefeated team in the NFL, sporting fortune has moved from Tampa to Philly. Why the Phillies won’t win: Because the last time the Phillies made the playoffs after firing a manager in 1983, they got to the World Series and were thrashed by the Orioles in five games. Because after Wheeler and Nola, their pitching is the worst of any playoff team. The Phillies’ 3.97 ERA was 18th in MLB and the highest of any playoff team, and their bullpen was worse. Phillies relievers had a 4.27 ERA, 23rd in MLB and almost half a run higher than any other playoff team.
- 10 Seattle: Why the Mariners will win: Because the Mariners ended the longest playoff drought in MLB at 20 seasons, passing that ignominious distinction to the Tigers and Angels, who have gone eight years without. Surely the Angels can sign the most expensive free agent this offseason to remedy that? Because the Mariners finished 61-33, a .649 pace, after starting 29-39. Only two teams (the Dodgers and Astros) played at a better pace for the full season. Because the Mariners did all that with Mitch Haniger, who hit 39 homers last year, playing just 57 games. He homered four times in the final six games. Why the Mariners won’t win: Because the last time the Mariners made the playoffs, a 116-win team went 4-6 in the postseason, barely beat Cleveland in the divisional series and was squashed by the Yankees in five games in the ALCS. Because even with Haniger back, the Mariners might struggle to score runs. They were 18th in runs scored this year, 16th in on-base percentage, 17th in slugging percentage. And now Jesse Winker, who struggled with a .219 average and .688 OPS, is hurt.
- 11 San Diego: Why the Padres will win: Because with a middle of the order of Juan Soto, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis, who can get the Padres out. Besides a PED test. Because no team added more talent at the trade deadline than the Padres — Soto, Josh Bell, Josh Hader, Brandon Drury. Because Blake Snell is pitching as he did in Game 6 of the 2020 World Series — in his last four starts, he’s given up 10 hits, four walks and two homers in 25 innings, fanning 32 and putting up an 0.72 ERA. And because Kevin Cash isn’t around to take him out after 73 pitches. Why the Padres won’t win: Because Tatis is suspended and most of that talent the Padres acquired hasn’t produced. Soto batted .236 and slugged .390 in 52 games, Bell batted .192 and slugged .271, Drury batted .238 with a .290 on-base percentage and Hader put up a 7.31 ERA with a .737 OPS against. Buyer beware. And because Snell always seems a better or two away from implosion. He had a 2.83 postseason with the Rays because Cash was proactive. Of Snell’s 24 starts this year, he pitched past his Game 6 limit in 14 of them. Only twice did he go seven innings. Bullpen be ready.
- 12. Tampa Bay: Why the Rays will win: Because if you think bullpens win in the postseason, the Rays might be your team. Their relievers pitched 682.2 innings, the most in MLB and 69 more than the next playoff team. Their bullpen was third in strikeouts, sixth in WHIP and eighth in batting average against. Why the Rays won’t win: Because their relievers threw 83 home runs, tied for second-most. Because they scored the fewest runs of any playoff team, finishing 21st. For those who think only pitching wins — and the eight teams with the best team ERAs all made the playoffs — the eight teams who scored the most runs also made it. And because as the final seed in the AL, the Rays won’t host a playoff series. They were 35-46 on the road, where they’ll be playing a majority of their games. Only the Cardinals, at 40-41, were under .500 away from home among playoff teams. Though that might be less of a problem in the wild-card round. The Guardians were 25th in attendance, averaging little more than 17,000 fans a game.
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