Hall of Fame ballot 2022, and who should get in

The 2004 Red Sox won the last seven games they played, winning the World Series, breaking an 86-year-old curse, doing what no other team has done before or since: rallying from three games behind to win a playoff series.

History is written by the winners, and when the Hall of Fame votes for 2022 are announced on Tuesday, we’ll see how far the legacy of that comeback may extend.

Hall of Fame votes have been, in great part, referendums about PEDs for more than a decade. Voters tiptoed between who used and who didn’t and who might have, and who should be kept out of the Hall because they definitely used and whose induction should be delayed because they might have. This year we add a full helping of the 2004 Red Sox for an election that will be about equal parts steroids and popularity.

Only one member of the 2004 Red Sox has so far been elected, and Pedro Martinez was as much a no-doubter as Game 7 of that year’s ALCS. But this year we have multiple decisions about the 2004 Red Sox that perplex.

David Ortiz, reportedly named in the Mitchell Report but who never tested positive, debuts on the ballot. Jeff Bagwell and Mike Piazza, who might have used, went in on their seventh and fourth attempts, respectively. Ortiz might go in on his first swing, thanks to 2004, a career of big hits, and likeability.

Curt Schilling, the leading returning vote-getter, makes his final appearance on the ballot. Schilling pitched through the 2004 postseason with a bloody sock on his injured ankle. He should be similarly attired for his Hall of Fame candidacy, except his wounds there are mostly self-inflicted. Schilling once tweeted out a meme suggesting that journalists should be hung. Those would be the folks who do the voting on his admission into the Hall. A worse job of lobbying voters hasn’t been seen since Walter Mondale told everyone to elect him and he’d raise their taxes.

And then there’s Manny Ramirez being Manny. He’s got the stats but he also has multiple positive test results and he once assaulted a Red Sox traveling secretary who was about old enough to have seen the last Red Sox world championship before the curse began. Talk about mismatches. There were hanging curves that had a better chance against Manny. Unfortunately for Manny, when it comes to his Hall of Fame candidacy, he’s the one getting whacked. In five previous attempts, he’s never gotten more than 28.2% of the vote despite 555 homers, a career .996 OPS and 69.7 WAR which wasn’t accumulated on defense. Manny’s 154 OPS+ is tied for 29th, 13 points and 47 places better than Ortiz, and just a couple of points behind Dick Allen (I’m combining Hall of Fame gripes here).

All three 2004 Red Sox candidates should be Hall of Famers. It’s pretty sure two of them won’t be when the results are announced, which is unfair, but the sporting equivalent of who’s the guy you want to have a beer with? As Ortiz demonstrated through a long career, a little goodwill goes a long way.

Here’s a look at the 13 first-time candidates:

• Carl Crawford: Crawford played nine seasons for the Rays, batted .296, slugged .444 and stole 480 bases. Age 29, the Red Sox signed him for seven years and $142 million. Suffice to say, the Hall won’t be putting the Carl Crawford signing on Theo Epstein’s plaque when he’s inducted. “I think (owner John Henry) didn’t want to do that one, but everyone else did in the organization,” Epstein told Sports Illustrated in 2012. Maybe the owner should have trusted his instincts and gone full Steinbrenner on his employees, because everyone else in the organization was wrong. Crawford had a .292 on-base percentage in 161 games in 2011-12, and the Red Sox sent him to the Dodgers before he completed two years of his contract. As far as free-agent signings, Crawford’s was Hall of Infamy, and his career was never the same.  No.
• Prince Fielder: If only there were a vegetarian wing of the Hall. Fielder said he stopped eating meat after hitting 50 homers at age 23 in 2007. When he slumped to 34 in 2008, it begat a lot of questions. Deadspin went so far as to ask “So, Is Vegetarianism Really Hurting Prince Fielder?” When he hit 46 homers, slugged .602 and drove in 141 runs in 2009, the answer seemed to be an unequivocal no. What hurt Prince was his physique. Bodies just aren’t meant to be constructed like his. He’s generously listed at 275 pounds at baseball-reference.com. Given his 5-foot-11 height, you can remember how it was distributed. Fielder hit 288 homers before his 30th birthday but it was just about then that neck injuries disabled his career. He hit just 31 more. Given the contract he signed to leave the Brewers for the Tigers — nine years, $214 million — he was among the highest-paid players in 2020, even though he hadn’t played since 2016. That contract bought a lot of salads. No.
• Ryan Howard: Howard averaged 49.5 home runs and 143 RBIs per year from 2006-09, won an MVP and a World Series, was Rookie of the Year, hit 382 career home runs in 13 seasons and retired with a lifetime .515 slugging percentage. Sounds like a pretty good candidate. Then why is his career WAR just 14.7, or about two good Alex Rodriguez seasons? For starters his defense, if you believe baseball-reference.com’s -17.3 WAR rating, was Manny Ramirez-like terrible. And his career was abbreviated, first by Phillies management and then by injury. Howard was a 23-year-old, low Class A first baseman when the Phillies signed Jim Thome, who played Howard’s position, for six years and $85 million. Thome was pretty good — he hit 89 homers in 2003-4, but Howard, who slugged .604 and hit 46 homers at AA and AAA in 2004, had no place to play. Thome hurt his back in 2005, which was fortuitous for Howard — hitting .371 and slugging .691 in AAA when finally called up for good — and the Phillies. If not, one of them might have had to move to left field, and it wouldn’t have been the veteran with an $85 million contract. Unfortunately, we were deprived of the sight of watching Howard, who had a tough enough time at first base, flailing in left field. No.
• Tim Lincecum: Has there ever been a multiple Cy Young Award winner who wasn’t on the ballot? Lincecum wouldn’t have been but for his final season with the Angels, when he was 2-6 with a 9.16 ERA in 38.1 innings. That was his qualifying 10th, and the exclamation point on the case against his candidacy. Lincecum had two great seasons in 2008-9, when he won consecutive Cy Youngs, and a couple of pretty good ones in the next two, the first one the first of the Giants’ three every-other-year world championships. By the second Giants title, Lincecum had deteriorated so badly he led the league with 15 losses for a 94-win division winner and had a 5.18 ERA. Still, he had some postseason moments in 2012. By the last World Series winner, Lincecum was an afterthought, appearing in just one of the Giants’ 17 postseason games. For the first half of Lincecum’s career he was 69-41 with a 2.98 ERA; for the second half he was 41-48 with a 4.94 ERA. No.
• Justin Morneau: The second-best Canadian first baseman (behind Joey Votto) was the 2006 AL MVP, though he probably shouldn’t have been, and en route to winning a second in 2010 when the concussion problems started. Morneau was batting .345 and slugging .618 when his head slid into second baseman John McDonald’s knee. According to the Star-Tribune’s La Velle E. Neal III in a 2020 story, “It was a takeout slide, which is no longer allowed … ” Maybe there’s a good reason for that and we can thank Chase Utley, if for all the wrong reasons. Morneau never played again in 2010, and only sparingly and putridly in 2011 (227/285/333). Just 29 when he was injured, Morneau was never nearly as good again. Having hit 20 homers for five straight seasons and 30 or more in three of those, he never did so again. Having hit .300 twice and on his way to a third, he never hit better than .267 again except for his two years when Coors Field was home (he hit .319 to win a batting championship in 2014 and a part-time .310 in 49 games in 2015, when the concussion hydra returned). According to Neal’s story: “The injury happened before head trauma became a bigger issue in the sports world. Doctors have told Morneau that with the information available today, he might have felt better sooner.” Morneau finished with 247 homers and a 120 OPS+, though the second half of his career was desolate. We can only wonder what if. No.
• Joe Nathan: Stony Brook University’s winningest major leaguer with 64. Then again, there’s not much competition. At his present pace of 14 wins in parts of seven seasons, Nick Tropeano will need to pitch ujtil he’s 55 to catch Nathan. Fangraphs.com’s Jay Jaffe voted for Nathan, which like an up-and-in fastball, should make us all pay attention. Nathan had a spectacular decade from 2004-13, five times having ERAs of less than 2.00 and as low as 1.39 and 1.33. Dismissing the outlier of 2011, when he was recovering from Tommy John surgery, Nathan averaged 42.5 saves a season and had a 1.92 ERA in that span. He had a career .613 OPS against in the most offensive of eras and went .516, .534, .454, .574, .522 and .549 from 2004-2009 before his second Tommy John surgery, and .464 after it in 2013, his last great season. Nathan was 28 when he won 12 games with the Giants, which began his stretch of good seasons, so the argument against Nathan is predominantly quantity, not quality. No.
• David Ortiz: Want to know why the Seattle Mariners have never won a World Series? They traded a 20-year-old Ortiz to the Twins for 113 plate appearances of Dave Hollins in the final month of 1996. The Mariners were five games back of Texas the day they acquired Hollins, seven when Ortiz was announced as the player to be named later. Hollins did his part, hitting .351 and upgrading over Jeff Manto and Doug Strange and Russ Davis. With a cast like that, the trade almost makes sense. The Mariners won 10 straight and cut a nine-game deficit to one with a week-plus to play. Then they lost six of their last eight and finished four-and-a-half games back. Hollins left as a free agent, and Ortiz, with a .940 OPS over three levels, was a Twin. If only. Imagine a Mariners lineup with Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr., Edgar Martinez, Jay Buhner and Ortiz. There’s some defense to be worked out, in that it would include two designated hitters, but the run-scoring potential might have been a remedy for even Lou Piniella’s temper. The Twins get most of the blame for Ortiz becoming a Red Sox because they cut him to avoid going to arbitration. But the Mariners traded him for 113 plate appearances of Dave Hollins. Nobody’s asked them recently if it was worth it. Yes.
• Jonathan Papelbon: If only Bryce Harper had a vote. The two had been teammates for barely two months when Papelbon choked Harper. Papelbon thought Harper hadn’t hustled after making an out at bat. Harper thought Papelbon was wrong to plunk Manny Machado a few days earlier. Maybe they were both right. Papelbon’s case isn’t dissimilar to Nathan’s. Like Nathan, Papelbon was a stellar closer for the better part of a decade. Papelbon had a better ERA (2.44 to 2.87) and ERA+ (177 to 151). Nathan had more saves (377-368). Papelbon had a better OPS against (.592 to .613). Nathan pitched almost 200 more innings. There are eight relievers in the Hall (Gossage, Rivera, Fingers, Hoffman, Smith, Sutter, Wilhelm and Eckersley) and one of them spent half his career as a starter. Another (Smith) shouldn’t be in (it says here). None of the previous eight, with the exception of Rivera and Hoffman, has been used like the current candidates, limited mostly to ninth-inning save situations. So how to judge? No.
• Jake Peavy: Peavy might not be the best pitcher ever from Mobile, Ala., but it’s no shame to be No. 2 to Satchel Paige. (Standards are pretty high in Mobile: the greatest player from Mobile designation was pretty much retired by the guy who hit 755 home runs.) Mobile’s AA franchise was Peavy’s last stop before the majors and for the first half of his career it was hard to tell the difference. Peavy won a Cy Young and two ERA titles and led the NL in strikeouts twice in his first five seasons. Then the inevitable injuries set in and Peavy’s career drifted. He was more lucky than good in the second half of his career, getting traded to the Red Sox in midseason of 2013 and the Giants in midseason 2014. Both won World Series, and Peavy contributed. Though his last postseason appearance, in the 2014 Series, was foreboding. He yielded five of the seven runs the Royals scored in the second inning of a 10-0 Game 6 rout, which did a lot more for Game 7 hero Madison Bumgarner’s Hall candidacy than Peavy’s. No.
• A.J. Pierzynski: I would rather Pierzynski be in the Hall, as much as he doesn’t deserve to be, than in the broadcast booth, where he is for Fox every Saturday. If annoying was a qualification, Pierzynski would be close to unanimous. Thankfully, modern devices come with easy-to-find mute buttons. For someone who never shuts up, Pierzynski never really says anything. That’s not a surprise. Pierzynski played 19 seasons and never walked more than 28 times in any of them, which would indicate he never grasped a central tenet or two of hitting. The Giants cut him in 2004 after trading three players for him (one of whom was fellow 2022 Hall candidate Joe Nathan), and the White Sox, managed by Ozzie Guillen, figured Pierzynski would fit in there, one weasel to another. He did, and Pierzynski had a .300 season and a 27-homer season and the White Sox won a World Series for the first time in 88 years. Fortunately, Pierzynski’s career ceased. Unfortunately, his sentences rarely do. No.
• Alex Rodriguez: Speaking of inane broadcasters, A-Rod last summer said walks start rallies and home runs end them. Or something like that. If A-Rod is ever getting into the Hall, it’s clearly not going to be for the thoughtfulness of his commentary. A-Rod’s career is so entangled with PEDs that he was suspended for an entire season, and it always begs the question: Why? He hit .358 with 54 doubles and a 1.045 OPS in 1996, when he was 20 on Opening Day (he turned 21 at the end of July). Unless he was chemically inclined as a teen, he didn’t much need PEDs. He was a three-time MVP and hit 696 home runs, 50 or more three times, 40 or more eight times, 30 or more 14 times. He knocked in 100 runs or more for 13 straight seasons, slugged .500 or more for 13 straight seasons, .600 or more six times, including four in a row. And he was a better shortstop in the field than Derek Jeter. Sorry Yankee fans. What might he have done without all the PEDs? We can only wonder. But that’s not even the biggest enigma that is ARod. How can someone who hit so many home runs say something so dismissive about them? And how did the sport’s most blatant cheater (his slapping at Bronson Arroyo in Game 6 of the 2004 ALCS was another example; ARod’s puzzled look when they called him out is me listening to him talk about home runs) become one of its most prominent analysts? If cable television had been around back in the day, and Benedict Arnold had lived long enough, it would be like having the disgraced general opine on the War of 1812. Alas, maybe we shouldn’t question. Put ARod in. And put it all on his plaque. Yes.
• Jimmy Rollins: Chase Utley, who played alongside Rollins, and Charlie Manuel, who managed him, think Rollins is a Hall of Famer. Which is exactly why players and baseball people shouldn’t be responsible for Hall of Fame determinations. They would judge more on bias and chumminess than performance. (Saying the writers shouldn’t do the Hall of Fame voting is a little like criticizing the NFL’s overtime rules. It seems a no-brainer, but no one has a better alternative). Utley and Manuel aren’t terribly wrong. Rollins was a multitalented shortstop who hit 231 home runs, stole 470 bases and won four Gold Gloves. He was the 2007 MVP, the year he declared the Phillies “the team to beat” in the NL East. They were, but only because of a Hall of Fame collapse by the Mets. Unfortunately for Rollins’ case, he was also a leadoff hitter who didn’t get on base well. He never hit .300 and had a lifetime .264 average. He walked in just 7.9% of his plate appearances and had a .324 career on-base percentage. He batted leadoff in 69% of his plate appearances and made an out not quite 68% of the time. As for Manuel’s endorsement? He’s the guy who wrote Rollins into the leadoff spot more than anyone else. As Greg Goossen was once told, consider the source. No.
• Mark Teixeira: Teixeira’s last contract was $180 million with the Yankees, part of a pretty good free-agent class (CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett) that helped win them their last World Series in 2009. With all that money, what did Teixeira do after he retired? He returned to college to graduate, according to an nj.com story last December. And no easy gut school, but Georgia Tech. That’s worthy of admiration, if not a Hall of Fame vote. Teixeira’s Hall resume, like his college transcript when he left for a pro career, is a little short. He hit 409 home runs, had a career .509 slugging percentage, and was runner-up to MVP Joe Mauer in 2009, when Teixeira led the AL with 39 homers, 122 RBIs and 344 total bases. He had nine 30-homer seasons and eight 100-RBI seasons. But he came up during the end of the PED era, and his 126 OPS+ is tied for 239th. That’s not good enough for a slugger who got no extra credit from defense or base running. No.
• So if I had a ballot, in addition to Ortiz and A-Rod, I’m checking Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Schilling, Scott Rolen, Billy Wagner and Manny. Maybe it’s time for Sammy Sosa, too.